On Thursday, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) announced an upward revision of its economic growth forecast for the current year to 3.85%, a 0.56 percentage point increase from its previous prediction.
TIER Director Sun Ming-te (孫明德) attributes this upward adjustment primarily to the global AI boom, which has encouraged domestic semiconductor manufacturers to expand their advanced manufacturing processes and high-end packaging capacities. As a result, TIER has raised its projections for private investment.
Despite projecting moderate internal and external growth, TIER anticipates a gradual decline in gross domestic product (GDP) throughout the year due to the base effect. Sun adds that improved global end-user demand, rising interest in emerging technology products, and a recovery in international trade are key factors contributing to better-than-expected export performance.
Sun warns of potential challenges related to AI integration in the private sector. He cautions that if AI development stagnates, it could impact the revenue performance of Taiwan's information and electronics industries.
Sun underscores the importance of monitoring global AI adoption rates, emphasizing that without substantial increases or deeper integration, future growth prospects could be limited.
Looking ahead, Sun highlights several crucial factors for the latter part of the year. These include the potential inflationary pressures stemming from ongoing Middle East conflicts affecting raw material prices, disruptions in international shipping leading to higher freight costs, and financial market fluctuations due to a strong US dollar. The performance of AI PCs in the September computer market will be crucial to assessing the technology’s continued growth trajectory.
